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Damiere Byrd Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears
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Damiere Byrd Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 30.8 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 33.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 31.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Byrd is projected for 6.8% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #93 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.96 yards per target this season, ranking in the #73 percentile.Byrd has been in the #77 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 71.2% completion rate.Seattle Seahawks safeties rank as the #28 unit in pass coverage.Chicago is a 7.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
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CONS:
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This offense passes the ball 57.5% of the time in a neutral context (#29 in the NFL).Byrd's offensive line has been #23 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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NEUTRAL:
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Byrd has been on the field for 53.6% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #59 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 55.6% of Chicago's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #52 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 6.8% -- #38 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Seattle's defense has allowed 153 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#19-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #20-most yards per target (8.02) against the Seahawks this season.The Seahawks have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 66.8% of their targets this season, (#15-most in the league).Seattle Seahawks cornerbacks rank as the #22 unit in pass coverage.The Chicago Bears have had the #19-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Bears project to run 63.7 plays in this contest, the #11-most of the week.This offenses projects to pass 62.3% of the time in this contest (#11 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Bears offensive line has given the QB 2.44 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#16-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Chicago Bears have run play-action on 26.9% of their passes this year, #13-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Chicago has faced the #19-most stacked boxes in the league this year (13.2%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 31.5 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 50.0% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$5.04 and with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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