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Damiere Byrd Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings
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Damiere Byrd Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Byrd is projected for 8.5% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #100 percentile among wide receivers.Minnesota's defense has allowed 197 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#1-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #3-most yards per target (9.32) against the Vikings this season.Minnesota Vikings cornerbacks rank as the #32 unit in pass coverage.Chicago is a 7.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
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CONS:
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Minnesota Vikings safeties rank as the #7 unit in pass coverage.This offense passes the ball 57.8% of the time in a neutral context (#29 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 54.0% of the time in this contest (#29 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Byrd's offensive line has been #24 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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NEUTRAL:
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Byrd has been on the field for 50.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #53 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 52.2% of Chicago's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #47 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 5.8% -- #33 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.47 yards per target this season, ranking in the #57 percentile.Byrd has been in the #63 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 67.6% completion rate.The Vikings have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 66.7% of their targets this season, (#16-most in the league).The Chicago Bears have had the #20-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Bears project to run 62.3 plays in this contest, the #21-most of the week.The Bears offensive line has given the QB 2.44 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#16-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Chicago Bears have run play-action on 26.9% of their passes this year, #13-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Chicago has faced the #19-most stacked boxes in the league this year (13.2%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 28.7 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 48.1% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$3.44 and with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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