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Damiere Byrd Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Chicago Bears vs Arizona Cardinals
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Damiere Byrd Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 29.2 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Byrd is projected for 10.7% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #100 percentile among wide receivers.Byrd has been in the #83 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 75.4% completion rate.The Bears project to run 64.2 plays in this contest, the #4-most of the week.Chicago is a 7.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
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CONS:
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His target share this season has been 4.1% -- #23 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 6.50 yards per target this season, ranking in the #16 percentile.Arizona's defense has allowed 132 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#31-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #27-most yards per target (7.66) against the Cardinals this season.The Cardinals have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 64.9% of their targets this season, (#23-most in the league).Arizona Cardinals cornerbacks rank as the #10 unit in pass coverage.This offense passes the ball 57.5% of the time in a neutral context (#28 in the NFL).Byrd's offensive line has been #23 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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NEUTRAL:
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Byrd has been on the field for 45.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #48 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 47.5% of Chicago's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #42 percentile among wide receivers.Arizona Cardinals safeties rank as the #11 unit in pass coverage.The Chicago Bears have had the #20-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offenses projects to pass 58.6% of the time in this contest (#18 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Bears offensive line has given the QB 2.44 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#16-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Chicago Bears have run play-action on 26.9% of their passes this year, #13-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Chicago has faced the #19-most stacked boxes in the league this year (13.2%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 28.3 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 49.8% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$4.52 and with a negative ROI of -4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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