| |
Damien Harris Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Damien Harris Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 62.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 59.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 62.5 @ -115.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
The New England Patriots offensive line has ranked #7 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has received 50.3% of New England's carries this year -- #23 percentile when it comes to running backs.This offense runs the ball 41.3% of the time in a neutral context (#8 in the NFL), and they project to run 41.3% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 43.1% of the time in this contest (#5 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Bills safeties have ranked #31 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 10.6% of the time this season, ranking as the #24 most in the league.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
Harris has been the #13-leading rusher this season, tallying 62 yards per game on the ground.New England has played in the #4-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in bad-weather conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The New England Patriots have had the #25-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Buffalo Bills have ranked #10 against the run this year, holding opponents to 106 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Buffalo's defense has allowed 4.07 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#7-least in football).Bills defensive tackles have ranked #9 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Bills linebackers have ranked #2 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the New England Patriots have faced a stacked box 26.0% of the time this season -- #1-most in football.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
He has been on the field for 38.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #61 percentile among running backs.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Harris is projected for 5.9% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The Patriots project to run 63.4 total plays in this contest, the #14-most of the week.Bills defensive ends have ranked #16 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ sees him putting up 74.1 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 58.3% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $10.41. It's return on investment would yeild 9%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
