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Damien Harris

Damien Harris Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
Damien Harris Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 51.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 53.5 @ -115.
  • The New England Patriots offensive line has ranked #7 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • He has received 54.7% of New England's carries this year -- #18 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • The Patriots project to run 63.8 total plays in this contest, the #8-most of the week.
  • This offenses projects to runs 44.7% of the time in this contest (#6 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Bills safeties have ranked #30 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 10.6% of the time this season, ranking as the #24 most in the league.

  • CONS:
  • Harris has been the #16-leading rusher this season, tallying 58 yards per game on the ground.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Harris is projected for -13.7% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • The New England Patriots have had the #24-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • New England is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.
  • The Buffalo Bills have ranked #4 against the run this year, holding opponents to 91 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, Buffalo's defense has allowed 3.78 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#2-least in football).
  • Bills defensive tackles have ranked #9 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Bills linebackers have ranked #2 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the New England Patriots have faced a stacked box 26.0% of the time this season -- #1-most in football.

  • He has been on the field for 39.1% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #62 percentile among running backs.
  • New England has played in the #5-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in bad-weather conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • This offense runs the ball 38.9% of the time in a neutral context (#15 in the NFL), and they project to run 38.9% of the time in this contest.
  • Bills defensive ends have ranked #19 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 56.3 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.3% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$2.53 and with a negative ROI of -2%.

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