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Dalvin Cook Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears
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Right now, Dalvin Cook Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 82.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 83.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 82.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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His 59.0% snap rate this year puts him in the #90 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 75.8% this year puts him in the #97 percentile among running backs.This year, the Vikings have played in 10 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #3-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.In a neutral context, Minnesota has run the #8-fastest paced offense this season.The Vikings enter as a 3.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #10-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 41.8% of their plays.The Bears defense has allowed 130 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #24-least in football.The Chicago Bears have allowed 4.67 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #23-best in the metric this season.The defensive tackles of Chicago have been the #29-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Chicago have been the #30-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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Cook finds himself in the #96 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 90 yards.The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Minnesota's ranks #31 in that regard this season.Teams run the ball less when they're in a dome and there's no wind, which will be the case for Minnesota this week.Minnesota has faced the #3-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (20.8% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Cook for a -1.5% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Minnesota Vikings are projected to run 61.9 plays in this matchup, the #20-most on the game slate.Minnesota has been the #16-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 39.5% run rate in a neutral context.The defensive ends of Chicago have been the #13-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Chicago have been the #21-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The Bears have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #16-most in the NFL this year at 14.7% of the time.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Cook to exceed his player prop total 55.5% of the time. He projects for 91.7 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $4.41. That makes its return on investment yield +4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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