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Dalvin Cook Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings
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Right now, Dalvin Cook Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 80.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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His 59.3% snap rate this year puts him in the #89 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 75.3% this year puts him in the #97 percentile among running backs.This year, the Vikings have played in 10 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #2-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.The Green Bay Packers have allowed 4.98 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #31-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of Green Bay have been the #27-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Green Bay have been the #23-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The Packers have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #31-most in the NFL this year at 5.5% of the time.
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CONS:
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Cook finds himself in the #97 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 97 yards.The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Minnesota's ranks #30 in that regard this season.The Minnesota Vikings are projected to run 61.8 plays in this matchup, the #24-most on the game slate.The Vikings are a 12.5 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.The linebackers of Green Bay have been the #5-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.Minnesota has faced the #3-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (20.8% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Cook for a -4.3% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.In a neutral context, Minnesota has run the #12-fastest paced offense this season.Minnesota has been the #14-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 39.9% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #15-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 40.9% of their plays.The Packers defense has allowed 116 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #20-least in football.The defensive tackles of Green Bay have been the #14-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Cook to exceed his player prop total 51.9% of the time. He projects for 83.5 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.35 with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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