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Dalvin Cook Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
San Francisco 49ers vs Minnesota Vikings
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Dalvin Cook Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 78.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 79.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 78.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Cook has been the #4-leading rusher this season, tallying 92 yards per game on the ground.He has been on the field for 59.6% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #90 percentile among running backs.He has received 76.3% of Minnesota's carries this year -- #3 percentile when it comes to running backs.Minnesota has played in the #2-most low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year. Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.This offense runs the ball 40.3% of the time in a neutral context (#9 in the NFL), and they project to run 40.3% of the time in this contest.The San Francisco 49ers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 10.1% of the time this season, ranking as the #26 most in the league.
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CONS:
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The Minnesota Vikings offensive line has ranked #30 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Minnesota is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.49ers linebackers have ranked #8 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.49ers safeties have ranked #5 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Minnesota Vikings have faced a stacked box 20.1% of the time this season -- #3-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Cook is projected for 0.3% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #67 percentile among running backs.The Minnesota Vikings have had the #12-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Vikings project to run 62.4 total plays in this contest, the #17-most of the week.This offenses projects to runs 40.2% of the time in this contest (#15 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.The San Francisco 49ers have ranked #19 against the run this year, holding opponents to 114 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, San Francisco's defense has allowed 4.40 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#14-least in football).49ers defensive ends have ranked #18 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.49ers defensive tackles have ranked #13 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 78.1 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 49.7% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$6.88 and with a negative ROI of -6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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