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Dak Prescott Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - NFC Wild Card Game
Dallas Cowboys vs San Francisco 49ers
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Right now, Dak Prescott Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 288.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Over: it opened 274.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 288.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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This year, at #3-best in the league, Prescott has passed for291 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #4-best in the league, completing passes at a 68.5% clip.In terms of efficiency, Prescott has been #4 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.80 yards per target.Dallas's game this week will be played in a dome. That means two things: zero wind and a greater chance to complete passes.In a neutral context, Dallas has run the #1-fastest paced offense this season.The Dallas Cowboys are projected to run 65.2 plays in this matchup, the #3-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 63.9% of the time (#7 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Dallas to drop back to pass on 64.1% of their plays in this game (#4-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Dallas's O-Line grades out as the #1-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.San Francisco has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.9% of their targets, which ranks them #23-best in the NFL.The San Francisco 49ers have had the #28-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, San Francisco's linebackers rank #26 this season.
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CONS:
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This year, the Cowboys have played in 11 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #2-most in football and means Prescott's numbers may be artificially inflated.The Cowboys enter as a 3.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.San Francisco's #8-ranked pass defense has allowed 216 passing yards per game this year.The San Francisco 49ers have had the #4-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, San Francisco's defensive ends rank #2 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of passing efficiency, San Francisco's defense is #15-best. This is because they allowed 7.55 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The San Francisco 49ers have had the #14-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, San Francisco's defensive tackles rank #15 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Prescott to exceed his player prop total 65.4% of the time. He projects for 334.9 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $27.28. That makes its return on investment yield +25%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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