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Dak Prescott Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals
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Right now, Dak Prescott Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 281.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 279.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 281.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This year, at #3-best in the league, Prescott has passed for292 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #5-best in the league, completing passes at a 68.8% clip.In terms of efficiency, Prescott has been #6 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.69 yards per target.Dallas's game this week will be played in a dome. That means two things: zero wind and a greater chance to complete passes.In a neutral context, Dallas has run the #2-fastest paced offense this season.The Dallas Cowboys are projected to run 68.1 plays in this matchup, the #1-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 64.0% of the time (#9 in the NFL).Dallas's O-Line grades out as the #1-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Arizona's defensive tackles rank #23 this season.
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CONS:
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This year, the Cowboys have played in 10 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #2-most in football and means Prescott's numbers may be artificially inflated.The Cowboys enter as a 6.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.Arizona's #6-ranked pass defense has allowed 225 passing yards per game this year.In terms of passing efficiency, Arizona's defense is #9-best. This is because they allowed 7.36 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Arizona's linebackers rank #3 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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THE BLITZ projects Dallas to drop back to pass on 62.0% of their plays in this game (#11-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Dallas's offensive has kept pressure off Dak Prescott for 2.45 seconds on average this year (#17-most in the NFL).Dallas has run play-action on 25.5% of their passes this year, #16-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Cowboys have faced the #16-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.0%).Arizona has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.3% of their targets, which ranks them #21-best in the NFL.The Arizona Cardinals have had the #19-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Arizona Cardinals have had the #13-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Arizona Cardinals have had the #14-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Arizona's defensive ends rank #14 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Cardinals, they've stacked the box on 12.1% of their plays this season, #22-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Prescott to exceed his player prop total 64.3% of the time. He projects for 324.2 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $23.31. That makes its return on investment yield +20%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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