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Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
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Right now, Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 29.5 (-130/100), with an implied projection of 31.5 yards.
The money is on the Over: it opened 28.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -130.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Sutton ranks in the #88 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 82.7% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Sutton ranks in the #88 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 90.3% of Denver's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Sutton ranks in the #79 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 19.4% of passes this season.This year, the Broncos have played in the #4-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.The Chiefs's pass defense ranks #26-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 168 yards per game this season.The Broncos are a 11.5 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.
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CONS:
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Sutton's 59.7% completion rate marks him in the #28 percentile among receivers.As a unit, the Chiefs cornerbacks rank #6 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Chiefs safeties rank #9 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Denver has run the #30-fastest paced offense this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Sutton for a -1.4% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Sutton ranks in the #46 percentile and has put up 7.95 yards per target this season.The Kansas City Chiefs have allowed 8.50 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #21-highest among NFL opponents.The Kansas City Chiefs rank #14-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 65.6%.The Denver Broncos are projected to run 61.8 plays in this matchup, the #22-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 59.2% of the time (#21 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Denver to drop back to pass on 61.0% of their plays in this game (#16-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Denver's O-Line grades out as the #15-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Sutton open.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Sutton to exceed his player prop total 64.5% of the time. He projects for 44.7 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $18.28. That makes its return on investment yield +14%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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