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Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos
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Right now, Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 43.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 44.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 43.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Sutton ranks in the #92 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 85.5% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Sutton ranks in the #88 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 90.2% of Denver's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Sutton ranks in the #78 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 19.4% of passes this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Sutton for a 3.3% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.This year, the Broncos have played in the #4-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.The weather forecast here calls for 1-mph wind. This is notable because a higher portion of passes get completed when winds are light.As a unit, the Chargers cornerbacks rank #24 in pass coverage.The Broncos are a 8.0 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.Denver's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.55 seconds on average this year (#8-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.
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CONS:
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Sutton's 60.1% completion rate marks him in the #30 percentile among receivers.The Chargers's pass defense ranks #7-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 141 yards per game this season.The Los Angeles Chargers have allowed 7.84 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #10-highest among NFL opponents.In a neutral context, Denver has run the #30-fastest paced offense this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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Sutton ranks in the #44 percentile and has put up 7.92 yards per target this season.The Los Angeles Chargers rank #20-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 67.1%.As a unit, the Chargers safeties rank #17 in pass coverage.The Denver Broncos are projected to run 62.3 plays in this matchup, the #22-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 59.8% of the time (#20 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Denver to drop back to pass on 61.6% of their plays in this game (#14-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Denver's O-Line grades out as the #15-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Sutton open.Denver has run play-action on 25.3% of their passes this year, #22-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Broncos have faced the #12-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.4%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Sutton to exceed his player prop total 66.0% of the time. He projects for 63.7 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $26.92. That makes its return on investment yield +23%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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