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Cordarrelle Patterson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints
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Right now, Cordarrelle Patterson Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 35.5 (-105/-125), with an implied projection of 34.2 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 37.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -125.
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PROS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Atlanta's ranks #8 in that regard this season.His 46.0% snap rate this year puts him in the #73 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 43.7% this year puts him in the #70 percentile among running backs.This year, the Falcons have played in 6 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #10-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.
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CONS:
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Teams run the ball less when they're in a dome and there's no wind, which will be the case for Atlanta this week.The Atlanta Falcons are projected to run 60.3 plays in this matchup, the #30-most on the game slate.The Falcons enter as a 4.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #31-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 33.4% of their plays.The Saints defense has allowed 94 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #4-least in football.The New Orleans Saints have allowed 3.72 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #1-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of New Orleans have been the #2-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The defensive tackles of New Orleans have been the #3-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of New Orleans have been the #2-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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Patterson finds himself in the #47 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 39 yards.This week, THE BLITZ projects Patterson for a 2.4% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.In a neutral context, Atlanta has run the #17-fastest paced offense this season.Atlanta has been the #19-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 38.5% run rate in a neutral context.The safeties of New Orleans have been the #15-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.Atlanta has faced the #22-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (12.5% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.The Saints have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #19-most in the NFL this year at 13.3% of the time.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Patterson to exceed his player prop total 49.5% of the time. He projects for 35.1 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.44 with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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