| |
Cordarrelle Patterson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Right now, Cordarrelle Patterson Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 40.5 (-110/-120), with an implied projection of 39.8 yards.
The money is on the Over: it opened 39.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 40.5 @ -110.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Atlanta's ranks #8 in that regard this season.His 45.7% snap rate this year puts him in the #73 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 43.9% this year puts him in the #71 percentile among running backs.This year, the Falcons have played in 6 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #10-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.The safeties of Buffalo have been the #31-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The Bills have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #24-most in the NFL this year at 10.6% of the time.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
The Falcons are a 14.5 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #27-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 36.4% of their plays.The Buffalo Bills have allowed 4.17 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #10-best in the metric this season.The defensive tackles of Buffalo have been the #9-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Buffalo have been the #3-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
Patterson finds himself in the #46 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 39 yards.This week, THE BLITZ projects Patterson for a 2.1% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.In a neutral context, Atlanta has run the #17-fastest paced offense this season.The Atlanta Falcons are projected to run 63.5 plays in this matchup, the #13-most on the game slate.Atlanta has been the #18-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 38.6% run rate in a neutral context.The Bills defense has allowed 109 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #14-least in football.The defensive ends of Buffalo have been the #17-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.Atlanta has faced the #22-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (12.5% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ projects Patterson to exceed his player prop total 58.7% of the time. He projects for 49.7 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $13.29. That makes its return on investment yield +12%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
