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Cordarrelle Patterson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Atlanta Falcons vs Detroit Lions
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Cordarrelle Patterson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 57.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 58.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 57.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The Atlanta Falcons offensive line has ranked #9 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has been on the field for 45.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #71 percentile among running backs.He has received 44.0% of Atlanta's carries this year -- #32 percentile when it comes to running backs.Atlanta has played in 6 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#9-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.Atlanta is a 7.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.The Detroit Lions have ranked #28 against the run this year, holding opponents to 137 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Detroit's defense has allowed 4.68 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#25-least in football).Lions defensive ends have ranked #30 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Lions safeties have ranked #26 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher likelihood of the Falcons passing the ball more than usual.
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NEUTRAL:
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Patterson has been the #36-leading rusher this season, tallying 42 yards per game on the ground.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Patterson is projected for 8.6% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The Atlanta Falcons have had the #16-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Falcons project to run 63.1 total plays in this contest, the #15-most of the week.This offense runs the ball 38.6% of the time in a neutral context (#18 in the NFL), and they project to run 38.6% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 39.8% of the time in this contest (#17 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Lions defensive tackles have ranked #17 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Lions linebackers have ranked #17 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked box 12.5% of the time this season -- #22-most in football.The Detroit Lions have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 14.1% of the time this season, ranking as the #18 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 57.4 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 49.9% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$7.29 and with a negative ROI of -6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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