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Cordarrelle Patterson

Cordarrelle Patterson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Atlanta Falcons vs Detroit Lions
Cordarrelle Patterson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 57.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 58.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 57.5 @ -115.
  • The Atlanta Falcons offensive line has ranked #9 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • He has been on the field for 45.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #71 percentile among running backs.
  • He has received 44.0% of Atlanta's carries this year -- #32 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Atlanta has played in 6 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#9-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • Atlanta is a 7.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • The Detroit Lions have ranked #28 against the run this year, holding opponents to 137 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, Detroit's defense has allowed 4.68 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#25-least in football).
  • Lions defensive ends have ranked #30 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Lions safeties have ranked #26 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • CONS:
  • This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher likelihood of the Falcons passing the ball more than usual.

  • Patterson has been the #36-leading rusher this season, tallying 42 yards per game on the ground.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Patterson is projected for 8.6% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • The Atlanta Falcons have had the #16-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Falcons project to run 63.1 total plays in this contest, the #15-most of the week.
  • This offense runs the ball 38.6% of the time in a neutral context (#18 in the NFL), and they project to run 38.6% of the time in this contest.
  • This offenses projects to runs 39.8% of the time in this contest (#17 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Lions defensive tackles have ranked #17 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Lions linebackers have ranked #17 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked box 12.5% of the time this season -- #22-most in football.
  • The Detroit Lions have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 14.1% of the time this season, ranking as the #18 most in the league.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 57.4 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 49.9% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$7.29 and with a negative ROI of -6%.

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