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Cooper Kupp Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams
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Cooper Kupp Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 93.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 97.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 93.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Kupp has been on the field for 92.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #98 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 95.8% of Los Angeles's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #98 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 32.2% -- #99 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 10.14 yards per target this season, ranking in the #88 percentile.Kupp has been in the #79 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 73.4% completion rate.This offense passes the ball 66.1% of the time in a neutral context (#6 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 63.3% of the time in this contest (#4 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.Kupp's offensive line has been #2 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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CONS:
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Green Bay's defense has allowed 135 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#27-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #30-most yards per target (7.03) against the Packers this season.The Packers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 57.2% of their targets this season, (#32-most in the league).Green Bay Packers safeties rank as the #8 unit in pass coverage.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Los Angeles Rams have run play-action on 21.9% of their passes this year, #27-most in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Kupp is projected for -0.7% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #49 percentile among wide receivers.Green Bay Packers cornerbacks rank as the #19 unit in pass coverage.The Los Angeles Rams have had the #14-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Rams project to run 62.1 plays in this contest, the #20-most of the week.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Los Angeles has faced the #21-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.8%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 98.9 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.1% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$0.88 and with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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