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Cole Beasley Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons
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Right now, Cole Beasley Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 40.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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In terms of earning targets, Beasley ranks in the #79 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 19.4% of passes this season.Beasley's 80.2% completion rate marks him in the #95 percentile among receivers.This year, the Bills have played in the #1-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Beasley's efficiency almost certainly took a hit in these games, and this should mean better things in better conditions.The Falcons's pass defense ranks #26-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 171 yards per game this season.The Atlanta Falcons rank #30-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 70.6%.As a unit, the Falcons safeties rank #30 in pass coverage.The Buffalo Bills are projected to run 64.0 plays in this matchup, the #7-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 68.2% of the time (#3 in the NFL).Buffalo has run play-action on 32.5% of their passes this year, #4-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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CONS:
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Beasley ranks in the #32 percentile and has put up 7.50 yards per target this season.Bad weather has been shown to have a negative impact on a receiver's numbers, and the weatherman currently calls for light snow in this game.As a unit, the Falcons cornerbacks rank #8 in pass coverage.The Bills are a 14.5 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Bills have faced the #27-most stacked boxes in the league this year (9.7%).
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, Beasley ranks in the #63 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 61.0% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Beasley ranks in the #64 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 74.1% of Buffalo's dropbacks this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Beasley for a -1.9% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Atlanta Falcons have allowed 8.37 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #19-highest among NFL opponents.In a neutral context, Buffalo has run the #18-fastest paced offense this season.THE BLITZ projects Buffalo to drop back to pass on 57.4% of their plays in this game (#21-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Buffalo's O-Line grades out as the #18-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Beasley open.Buffalo's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.49 seconds on average this year (#21-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Beasley to exceed his player prop total 53.9% of the time. He projects for 44.8 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $0.97. That makes its return on investment yield +1%.
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