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Clyde Edwards-Helaire Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 21 - AFC Championship Game
Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals
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Right now, Clyde Edwards-Helaire Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 37.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Over: it opened 35.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 37.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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His 51.0% snap rate this year puts him in the #77 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 52.5% this year puts him in the #83 percentile among running backs.In a neutral context, Kansas City has run the #10-fastest paced offense this season.The Kansas City Chiefs are projected to run 64.0 plays in this matchup, the #1-most on the game slate.The Chiefs are a 7.0 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #3-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 34.8% of their plays.The linebackers of Cincinnati have been the #28-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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Edwards-Helaire finds himself in the #67 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 52 yards.This week, THE BLITZ projects Edwards-Helaire for a -19.7% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.This year, the Chiefs have played in the #1-most games with 15 mph+ winds. Because teams tend to run more when it's windy, Kansas City's play-calling Run% may appear higher than it ought to be.Teams run the ball less when winds are light, and forecasts call for 3-mph wind in this game.Kansas City has been the #31-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 29.4% run rate in a neutral context.The Bengals defense has allowed 103 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #5-least in football.The defensive tackles of Cincinnati have been the #7-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Kansas City's ranks #14 in that regard this season.The Cincinnati Bengals have allowed 4.37 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #15-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of Cincinnati have been the #22-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Cincinnati have been the #19-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Edwards-Helaire to exceed his player prop total 45.7% of the time. He projects for 33.6 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $4.07. That makes its return on investment yield +4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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