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Clyde Edwards-Helaire Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers
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Clyde Edwards-Helaire Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 60.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 59.6 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 56.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 60.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 52.8% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #77 percentile among running backs.He has received 53.2% of Kansas City's carries this year -- #20 percentile when it comes to running backs.The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #7-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Chiefs project to run 65.0 total plays in this contest, the #7-most of the week.Kansas City is a 10.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.The Pittsburgh Steelers have ranked #30 against the run this year, holding opponents to 142 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Pittsburgh's defense has allowed 5.01 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#31-least in football).Steelers defensive tackles have ranked #25 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked box 5.8% of the time this season -- #31-most in football.
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CONS:
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Edwards-Helaire has been the #21-leading rusher this season, tallying 54 yards per game on the ground.Kansas City has played in the #1-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.This offense runs the ball 28.8% of the time in a neutral context (#31 in the NFL), and they project to run 28.8% of the time in this contest.Steelers defensive ends have ranked #2 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 19.3% of the time this season, ranking as the #5 most in the league.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line has ranked #14 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Edwards-Helaire is projected for 0.9% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.This offenses projects to runs 38.3% of the time in this contest (#21 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Steelers linebackers have ranked #18 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Steelers safeties have ranked #20 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 61.6 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 50.8% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.24 and with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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