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Chuba Hubbard Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Buffalo Bills vs Carolina Panthers
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Chuba Hubbard Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 43.8 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 42.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 44.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Hubbard is projected for 12.4% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.This offense runs the ball 40.6% of the time in a neutral context (#10 in the NFL), and they project to run 40.6% of the time in this contest.Bills safeties have ranked #31 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 10.6% of the time this season, ranking as the #24 most in the league.
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CONS:
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The Carolina Panthers offensive line has ranked #29 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Carolina is a 14.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.In terms of efficiency, Buffalo's defense has allowed 4.02 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#5-least in football).Bills defensive tackles have ranked #8 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Bills linebackers have ranked #2 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Carolina Panthers have faced a stacked box 20.7% of the time this season -- #4-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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Hubbard has been the #40-leading rusher this season, tallying 38 yards per game on the ground.He has been on the field for 38.1% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #62 percentile among running backs.He has received 37.2% of Carolina's carries this year -- #38 percentile when it comes to running backs.Carolina has played in the #12-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Carolina Panthers have had the #14-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Panthers project to run 62.9 total plays in this contest, the #16-most of the week.This offenses projects to runs 43.9% of the time in this contest (#11 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Buffalo Bills have ranked #11 against the run this year, holding opponents to 104 yards per game on the ground.Bills defensive ends have ranked #19 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 62.6 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 65.0% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $26.56. It's return on investment would yeild 24%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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