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Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks
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Right now, Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 55.5 (-130/100), with an implied projection of 58.2 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 56.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 55.5 @ 100.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Kirk ranks in the #73 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 71.9% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Kirk ranks in the #74 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 80.7% of Arizona's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Kirk ranks in the #78 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 18.9% of passes this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Kirk for a 3.7% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Kirk ranks in the #81 percentile and has put up 9.27 yards per target this season.Kirk's 75.5% completion rate marks him in the #90 percentile among receivers.Arizona's game this week will be played in a dome. That means two things: zero wind and a greater chance to catch passes.As a unit, the Seahawks safeties rank #31 in pass coverage.The Arizona Cardinals are projected to run 65.7 plays in this matchup, the #3-most on the game slate.Arizona has run play-action on 37.3% of their passes this year, #1-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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CONS:
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The Cardinals enter as a 5.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Cardinals have faced the #30-most stacked boxes in the league this year (7.5%).
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NEUTRAL:
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The Seahawks's pass defense ranks #20-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 159 yards per game this season.The Seattle Seahawks have allowed 8.17 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #16-highest among NFL opponents.The Seattle Seahawks rank #20-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 66.8%.As a unit, the Seahawks cornerbacks rank #17 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Arizona has run the #15-fastest paced offense this season.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 61.2% of the time (#15 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Arizona to drop back to pass on 60.6% of their plays in this game (#17-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Arizona's O-Line grades out as the #16-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Kirk open.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Kirk to exceed his player prop total 63.4% of the time. He projects for 74.2 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $15.91. That makes its return on investment yield +12%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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