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Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals
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Right now, Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 59.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 55.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 59.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Kirk ranks in the #71 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 70.8% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Kirk ranks in the #73 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 79.9% of Arizona's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Kirk ranks in the #76 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 18.5% of passes this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Kirk for a 3.0% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Kirk ranks in the #79 percentile and has put up 9.30 yards per target this season.Kirk's 75.3% completion rate marks him in the #88 percentile among receivers.The weather forecast here calls for 0-mph wind. This is notable because a higher portion of passes get completed when winds are light.The Cowboys's pass defense ranks #28-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 171 yards per game this season.The Arizona Cardinals are projected to run 67.5 plays in this matchup, the #2-most on the game slate.The Cardinals enter as a 6.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.THE BLITZ projects Arizona to drop back to pass on 62.4% of their plays in this game (#9-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Arizona has run play-action on 37.3% of their passes this year, #1-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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CONS:
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The Dallas Cowboys rank #1-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 56.3%.As a unit, the Cowboys safeties rank #10 in pass coverage.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Cardinals have faced the #30-most stacked boxes in the league this year (7.5%).
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NEUTRAL:
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The Dallas Cowboys have allowed 7.96 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #13-highest among NFL opponents.As a unit, the Cowboys cornerbacks rank #11 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Arizona has run the #16-fastest paced offense this season.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 61.3% of the time (#16 in the NFL).Arizona's O-Line grades out as the #16-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Kirk open.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Kirk to exceed his player prop total 50.8% of the time. He projects for 60.6 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$5.74 with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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