| |
Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Arizona Cardinals vs Indianapolis Colts
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 61.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 57.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 61.5 @ -115.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
Kirk has been on the field for 69.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #71 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 79.0% of Arizona's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #74 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 18.1% -- #75 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.67 yards per target this season, ranking in the #86 percentile.Kirk has been in the #87 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 75.4% completion rate.This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.Indianapolis Colts safeties rank as the #27 unit in pass coverage.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Arizona Cardinals have run play-action on 37.3% of their passes this year, #1-most in the NFL.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
Indianapolis's defense has allowed 139 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#26-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #29-most yards per target (7.37) against the Colts this season.The Colts have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 61.7% of their targets this season, (#26-most in the league).Indianapolis Colts cornerbacks rank as the #8 unit in pass coverage.Arizona is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Arizona has faced the #30-most stacked boxes in the league this year (7.5%).
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Kirk is projected for 2.9% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #81 percentile among wide receivers.The Arizona Cardinals have had the #20-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Cardinals project to run 63.0 plays in this contest, the #17-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 61.3% of the time in a neutral context (#16 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 58.9% of the time in this contest (#21 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Kirk's offensive line has been #16 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ sees him putting up 63.1 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 51.2% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$4.98 and with a negative ROI of -4%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
