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Christian Kirk

Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Arizona Cardinals vs Indianapolis Colts
Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 61.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 57.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 61.5 @ -115.
  • Kirk has been on the field for 69.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #71 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 79.0% of Arizona's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #74 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 18.1% -- #75 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.67 yards per target this season, ranking in the #86 percentile.
  • Kirk has been in the #87 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 75.4% completion rate.
  • This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.
  • Indianapolis Colts safeties rank as the #27 unit in pass coverage.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Arizona Cardinals have run play-action on 37.3% of their passes this year, #1-most in the NFL.

  • CONS:
  • Indianapolis's defense has allowed 139 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#26-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #29-most yards per target (7.37) against the Colts this season.
  • The Colts have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 61.7% of their targets this season, (#26-most in the league).
  • Indianapolis Colts cornerbacks rank as the #8 unit in pass coverage.
  • Arizona is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Arizona has faced the #30-most stacked boxes in the league this year (7.5%).

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Kirk is projected for 2.9% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #81 percentile among wide receivers.
  • The Arizona Cardinals have had the #20-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Cardinals project to run 63.0 plays in this contest, the #17-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 61.3% of the time in a neutral context (#16 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 58.9% of the time in this contest (#21 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Kirk's offensive line has been #16 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 63.1 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 51.2% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$4.98 and with a negative ROI of -4%.

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