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Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Chicago Bears vs Arizona Cardinals
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Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 40.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 41.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Kirk has been on the field for 67.6% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #70 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 77.8% of Arizona's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #72 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 17.7% -- #73 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 10.58 yards per target this season, ranking in the #93 percentile.Kirk has been in the #95 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 81.1% completion rate.Chicago's defense has allowed 175 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#9-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #5-most yards per target (9.37) against the Bears this season.Chicago Bears cornerbacks rank as the #29 unit in pass coverage.Chicago Bears safeties rank as the #23 unit in pass coverage.The Cardinals project to run 65.0 plays in this contest, the #2-most of the week.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Arizona Cardinals have run play-action on 37.3% of their passes this year, #1-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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Arizona is a 7.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offenses projects to pass 50.5% of the time in this contest (#26 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Arizona has faced the #30-most stacked boxes in the league this year (7.5%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Kirk is projected for 0.6% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #76 percentile among wide receivers.The Bears have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.2% of their targets this season, (#14-most in the league).The Arizona Cardinals have had the #22-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 61.3% of the time in a neutral context (#17 in the NFL).Kirk's offensive line has been #15 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 40.4 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 49.0% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$5.29 and with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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