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Chris Conley Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers
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Chris Conley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 27.8 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Conley is projected for 8.8% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #96 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.78 yards per target this season, ranking in the #67 percentile.Houston has played in the #4-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.Los Angeles Chargers cornerbacks rank as the #23 unit in pass coverage.The Houston Texans have had the #8-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Houston is a 13.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offenses projects to pass 65.8% of the time in this contest (#4 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Texans offensive line has given the QB 2.26 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#1-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Houston has faced the #11-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.7%).
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CONS:
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Conley has been in the #31 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 60.1% completion rate.Los Angeles's defense has allowed 137 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#27-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #25-most yards per target (7.63) against the Chargers this season.This offense passes the ball 58.6% of the time in a neutral context (#26 in the NFL).Conley's offensive line has been #25 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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NEUTRAL:
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Conley has been on the field for 55.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #59 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 54.5% of Houston's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #49 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 7.0% -- #39 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.The Chargers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 66.6% of their targets this season, (#16-most in the league).Los Angeles Chargers safeties rank as the #16 unit in pass coverage.The Texans project to run 63.6 plays in this contest, the #12-most of the week.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Houston Texans have run play-action on 24.6% of their passes this year, #20-most in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 47.7 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 67.8% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $32.38. It's return on investment would yeild 29%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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