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Chris Conley Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts
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Chris Conley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 17.9 yards.
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PROS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Conley is projected for 4.1% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #93 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 10.88 yards per target this season, ranking in the #96 percentile.This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.Indianapolis Colts safeties rank as the #27 unit in pass coverage.Houston is a 10.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offenses projects to pass 63.5% of the time in this contest (#7 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Texans offensive line has given the QB 2.26 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#1-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Houston has faced the #11-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.7%).
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CONS:
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Indianapolis's defense has allowed 143 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#25-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #24-most yards per target (7.82) against the Colts this season.This offense passes the ball 58.0% of the time in a neutral context (#26 in the NFL).Conley's offensive line has been #30 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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NEUTRAL:
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Conley has been on the field for 55.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #57 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 54.7% of Houston's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #49 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 6.6% -- #36 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Conley has been in the #57 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 66.3% completion rate.The Colts have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 65.3% of their targets this season, (#21-most in the league).Indianapolis Colts cornerbacks rank as the #17 unit in pass coverage.The Houston Texans have had the #13-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Texans project to run 62.5 plays in this contest, the #18-most of the week.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Houston Texans have run play-action on 24.6% of their passes this year, #20-most in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 31.1 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 64.2% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $24.74. It's return on investment would yeild 22%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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