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Chase Claypool Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns
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Right now, Chase Claypool Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 40.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 36.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 40.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Claypool ranks in the #80 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 78.5% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Claypool ranks in the #74 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 80.1% of Pittsburgh's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Claypool ranks in the #78 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 18.9% of passes this season.Claypool ranks in the #74 percentile and has put up 8.94 yards per target this season.This year, the Steelers have played in the #4-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.In a neutral context, Pittsburgh has run the #4-fastest paced offense this season.Pittsburgh's O-Line grades out as the #7-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Claypool open.Pittsburgh's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.39 seconds on average this year (#5-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Steelers have faced the #10-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.1%).
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CONS:
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Claypool's 58.7% completion rate marks him in the #22 percentile among receivers.As a unit, the Browns cornerbacks rank #9 in pass coverage.Pittsburgh has run play-action on 19.6% of their passes this year, #30-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Claypool for a -0.4% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Browns's pass defense ranks #12-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 152 yards per game this season.The Cleveland Browns have allowed 8.20 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #18-highest among NFL opponents.The Cleveland Browns rank #14-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 65.8%.As a unit, the Browns safeties rank #19 in pass coverage.The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to run 63.8 plays in this matchup, the #11-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 61.5% of the time (#14 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Pittsburgh to drop back to pass on 61.0% of their plays in this game (#11-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Claypool to exceed his player prop total 57.0% of the time. He projects for 48.3 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $7.53. That makes its return on investment yield +7%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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