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Chase Claypool Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers
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Chase Claypool Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 45.7 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 47.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 46.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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Claypool has been on the field for 78.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #80 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 80.6% of Pittsburgh's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #75 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 19.3% -- #79 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.90 yards per target this season, ranking in the #71 percentile.Pittsburgh has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the #9-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Steelers project to run 63.7 plays in this contest, the #10-most of the week.Pittsburgh is a 10.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offenses projects to pass 65.1% of the time in this contest (#6 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Claypool's offensive line has been #7 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Steelers offensive line has given the QB 2.39 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#5-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Pittsburgh has faced the #10-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.1%).
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CONS:
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Claypool has been in the #19 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 57.6% completion rate.The Chiefs have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 64.3% of their targets this season, (#24-most in the league).Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks rank as the #3 unit in pass coverage.Kansas City Chiefs safeties rank as the #7 unit in pass coverage.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Pittsburgh Steelers have run play-action on 19.6% of their passes this year, #30-most in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Claypool is projected for -0.3% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #52 percentile among wide receivers.Kansas City's defense has allowed 158 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#15-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #18-most yards per target (8.13) against the Chiefs this season.This offense passes the ball 62.1% of the time in a neutral context (#13 in the NFL).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 55.8 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.7% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $11.21. It's return on investment would yeild 10%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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