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Cedrick Wilson Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - NFC Wild Card Game
Dallas Cowboys vs San Francisco 49ers
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Right now, Cedrick Wilson Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 40.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Under: it opened 43.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 40.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Wilson for a 3.2% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Wilson ranks in the #78 percentile and has put up 9.37 yards per target this season.Wilson's 74.0% completion rate marks him in the #85 percentile among receivers.Dallas's game this week will be played in a dome. That means two things: zero wind and a greater chance to catch passes.The San Francisco 49ers rank #28-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 68.4%.As a unit, the 49ers cornerbacks rank #28 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Dallas has run the #1-fastest paced offense this season.The Dallas Cowboys are projected to run 65.2 plays in this matchup, the #3-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 63.9% of the time (#7 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Dallas to drop back to pass on 64.1% of their plays in this game (#4-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Dallas's O-Line grades out as the #1-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Wilson open.
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CONS:
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The Cowboys enter as a 3.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, Wilson ranks in the #41 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 40.2% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Wilson ranks in the #45 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 52.0% of Dallas's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Wilson ranks in the #50 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 10.6% of passes this season.The 49ers's pass defense ranks #16-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 146 yards per game this season.The San Francisco 49ers have allowed 8.55 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #22-highest among NFL opponents.As a unit, the 49ers safeties rank #14 in pass coverage.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Wilson to exceed his player prop total 60.2% of the time. He projects for 52.2 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $16.44. That makes its return on investment yield +15%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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