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Carson Wentz Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts
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Right now, Carson Wentz Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 207.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 217.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 207.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Indianapolis has run play-action on 31.7% of their passes this year, #6-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Jacksonville has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 74.2% of their targets, which ranks them #31-best in the NFL.In terms of passing efficiency, Jacksonville's defense is #28-best. This is because they allowed 8.22 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the #26-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Jacksonville's defensive ends rank #23 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Jacksonville's linebackers rank #25 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Jaguars, they've stacked the box on 18.8% of their plays this season, #6-most in football.
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CONS:
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This year, at #29-best in the league, Wentz has passed for202 yards per game.In terms of efficiency, Wentz has been #29 in the NFL this season. He averages 6.65 yards per target.This year, the Colts have played in 9 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #5-most in football and means Wentz's numbers may be artificially inflated.In a neutral context, Indianapolis has run the #31-fastest paced offense this season.The Indianapolis Colts are projected to run 61.4 plays in this matchup, the #26-most on the game slate.The Colts are a 14.0 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 58.3% of the time (#26 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Indianapolis to drop back to pass on 49.0% of their plays in this game (#32-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of Completion%, he has been the #28-best in the league, completing passes at a 61.2% clip.Indianapolis's O-Line grades out as the #19-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Indianapolis's offensive has kept pressure off Carson Wentz for 2.47 seconds on average this year (#20-most in the NFL).Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Colts have faced the #18-most stacked boxes in the league this year (13.6%).Jacksonville's #15-ranked pass defense has allowed 243 passing yards per game this year.The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the #13-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the #22-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Jacksonville's defensive tackles rank #17 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Wentz to exceed his player prop total 49.1% of the time. He projects for 205.2 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the UNDER to offer better odds. The expected value on the UNDER is -$5.59 with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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