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Carson Wentz Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts
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Carson Wentz Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 237.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 248.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 237.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Indianapolis has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Indianapolis Colts have run play-action on 31.7% of their passes this year, #6-most in the NFL.Houston's defense has been #29-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.45 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Houston Texans have had the #31-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Houston Texans have had the #30-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Houston Texans have had the #26-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Texans linebackers have ranked #29 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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He's been the #30-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 61.6% clip.Efficiency-wise, Wentz has been #27 in the NFL this season, averaging 6.75 yards per target.The Indianapolis Colts have had the #29-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Indianapolis is a 10.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offenses projects to pass 55.0% of the time in this contest (#24 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Texans defensive ends have ranked #3 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Texans defensive tackles have ranked #10 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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Wentz has passed for 224 yards per game this year, #23-best in the league.The Colts project to run 62.8 plays in this contest, the #14-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 61.6% of the time in a neutral context (#16 in the NFL).Carson Wentz's offensive line has been #19 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Colts offensive line has given Carson Wentz 2.47 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Indianapolis have faced the #18-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#13.6%).The Houston Texans enter this game with the #19-best pass defense this season, allowing 262 yards per game through the air.The Texans have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.1% of their targets, ranking #16 in the NFL.The Houston Texans have stacked the box on 15.9% of their plays this season, #11-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 232.8 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 48.3% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$3.74 and with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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