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Cam Newton Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons
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Cam Newton Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 187.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 200.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 187.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The Panthers project to run 63.9 plays in this contest, the #9-most of the week.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Carolina have faced the #4-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#20.7%).The Falcons have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 74.1% of their targets, ranking #28 in the NFL.The Atlanta Falcons have had the #26-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Atlanta Falcons have had the #31-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Falcons defensive ends have ranked #26 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Falcons defensive tackles have ranked #32 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Falcons linebackers have ranked #29 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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This offenses projects to pass 48.7% of the time in this contest (#27 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Cam Newton's offensive line has been #32 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Carolina Panthers have run play-action on 23.7% of their passes this year, #24-most in the NFL.The Atlanta Falcons have had the #8-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box on 7.8% of their plays this season, #30-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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NEUTRAL:
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Carolina has played in the #11-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Carolina Panthers have had the #16-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 59.9% of the time in a neutral context (#21 in the NFL).The Panthers offensive line has given Cam Newton 2.45 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.The Atlanta Falcons enter this game with the #21-best pass defense this season, allowing 264 yards per game through the air.Atlanta's defense has been #16-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.75 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 191.1 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 51.4% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$4.40 and with a negative ROI of -4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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