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Cam Newton Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Miami Dolphins vs Carolina Panthers
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Cam Newton Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 216.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 215.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 216.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Carolina have faced the #4-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#19.9%).The Miami Dolphins enter this game with the #30-best pass defense this season, allowing 290 yards per game through the air.The Miami Dolphins have had the #25-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.Dolphins defensive ends have ranked #25 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Dolphins defensive tackles have ranked #23 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box on 18.3% of their plays this season, #9-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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Carolina has played in the #9-most low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year, which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.This offenses projects to pass 52.7% of the time in this contest (#28 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.Cam Newton's offensive line has been #26 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Carolina Panthers have run play-action on 22.6% of their passes this year, #26-most in the NFL.The Miami Dolphins have had the #6-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Miami Dolphins have had the #7-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Miami's defensive front has pressured opposing quarterbacks 2 seconds after the snap, on average, ranking #1-quickest in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Carolina Panthers have had the #18-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Panthers project to run 62.6 plays in this contest, the #15-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 60.1% of the time in a neutral context (#21 in the NFL).The Panthers offensive line has given Cam Newton 2.46 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.The Dolphins have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.1% of their targets, ranking #17 in the NFL.Miami's defense has been #22-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.11 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.Dolphins linebackers have ranked #11 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 225.5 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.4% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$0.13 and with a negative ROI of -0%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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