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Cam Akers Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 22 - Super Bowl LVI
Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Rams
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Right now, Cam Akers Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 61.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Over: it opened 58.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 61.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Los Angeles's ranks #1 in that regard this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Akers for a 41.0% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.This year, the Rams have played in 11 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #3-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.The Los Angeles Rams are projected to run 62.1 plays in this matchup, the #2-most on the game slate.The Rams enter as a 4.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #2-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 35.9% of their plays.The linebackers of Cincinnati have been the #28-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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Teams run the ball less when winds are light, and forecasts call for 1-mph wind in this game.Los Angeles has been the #27-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 34.8% run rate in a neutral context.The Bengals defense has allowed 103 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #5-least in football.The defensive tackles of Cincinnati have been the #7-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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In a neutral context, Los Angeles has run the #14-fastest paced offense this season.The Cincinnati Bengals have allowed 4.37 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #15-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of Cincinnati have been the #22-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Cincinnati have been the #19-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Akers to exceed his player prop total 44.8% of the time. He projects for 55.0 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $5.94. That makes its return on investment yield +5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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