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Cam Akers Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 21 - NFC Championship Game
Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
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Right now, Cam Akers Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 60.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Under: it opened 68.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 60.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Los Angeles's ranks #1 in that regard this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Akers for a 54.7% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.This year, the Rams have played in 10 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #5-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.The Los Angeles Rams are projected to run 62.2 plays in this matchup, the #4-most on the game slate.The Rams enter as a 3.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #4-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 34.6% of their plays.
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CONS:
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Teams run the ball less when they're in a dome and there's no wind, which will be the case for Los Angeles this week.Los Angeles has been the #27-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 34.8% run rate in a neutral context.The 49ers defense has allowed 104 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #7-least in football.The San Francisco 49ers have allowed 4.11 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #6-best in the metric this season.The linebackers of San Francisco have been the #6-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of San Francisco have been the #5-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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In a neutral context, Los Angeles has run the #14-fastest paced offense this season.The defensive ends of San Francisco have been the #11-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The defensive tackles of San Francisco have been the #12-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Akers to exceed his player prop total 49.7% of the time. He projects for 60.1 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the UNDER to offer better odds. The expected value on the UNDER is -$4.29 with a negative ROI of -4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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