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Breshad Perriman

Breshad Perriman Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - NFC Wild Card Game

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles
 
 
 
Right now, Breshad Perriman Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 37.5 (-110/-110).

The money is on the Over: it opened 36.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 37.5 @ -110.
PROS:
  • This week, THE BLITZ projects Perriman for a 4.9% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.
  • As a unit, the Eagles safeties rank #25 in pass coverage.
  • In a neutral context, Tampa Bay has run the #5-fastest paced offense this season.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected to run 65.1 plays in this matchup, the #5-most on the game slate.
  • In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 70.8% of the time (#1 in the NFL).
  • THE BLITZ projects Tampa Bay to drop back to pass on 67.8% of their plays in this game (#1-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
  • Tampa Bay's O-Line grades out as the #9-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Perriman open.

  • CONS:
  • The weather forecast for this game calls for 18-mph wind. This is important because high winds lead to fewer pass completions.
  • The Eagles's pass defense ranks #3-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 122 yards per game this season.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles have allowed 7.47 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #7-highest among NFL opponents.
  • As a unit, the Eagles cornerbacks rank #1 in pass coverage.
  • The Buccaneers are a 7.0 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.

  • NEUTRAL:
  • The Philadelphia Eagles rank #20-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 66.8%.

  • PROJECTION:
    THE BLITZ projects Perriman to exceed his player prop total 47.1% of the time. He projects for 34.5 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.

    According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $1.15. That makes its return on investment yield +1%.
     
     
     
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