| |
Breshad Perriman Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Buffalo Bills
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Breshad Perriman Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 23.9 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -120.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Perriman is projected for 3.0% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #87 percentile among wide receivers.Tampa Bay has played in the #7-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #8-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Buccaneers project to run 64.6 plays in this contest, the #5-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 72.2% of the time in a neutral context (#1 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 70.6% of the time in this contest (#1 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Perriman's offensive line has been #10 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Buccaneers offensive line has given the QB 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#7-most time in the league).
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
Buffalo's defense has allowed 117 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#32-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #32-most yards per target (6.12) against the Bills this season.The Bills have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 60.7% of their targets this season, (#28-most in the league).Buffalo Bills cornerbacks rank as the #3 unit in pass coverage.Buffalo Bills safeties rank as the #1 unit in pass coverage.Tampa Bay is a 3.5 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run play-action on 20.4% of their passes this year, #29-most in the NFL.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Tampa Bay has faced the #21-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.7%).
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ sees him putting up 23.1 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 48.4% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$6.52 and with a negative ROI of -5%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
