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Braxton Berrios Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17
New York Jets vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Right now, Braxton Berrios Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 47.5 (-110/-120), with an implied projection of 46.7 yards.
The money is on the Over: it opened 45.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 47.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Berrios for a 14.6% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Berrios's 80.0% completion rate marks him in the #94 percentile among receivers.In a neutral context, New York has run the #8-fastest paced offense this season.The New York Jets are projected to run 65.6 plays in this matchup, the #4-most on the game slate.The Jets are a 14.5 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.THE BLITZ projects New York to drop back to pass on 63.7% of their plays in this game (#4-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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CONS:
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have allowed 7.27 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #2-highest among NFL opponents.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers rank #8-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 63.2%.As a unit, the Buccaneers cornerbacks rank #4 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Buccaneers safeties rank #4 in pass coverage.New York's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.54 seconds on average this year (#24-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.New York has run play-action on 21.8% of their passes this year, #28-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Jets have faced the #25-most stacked boxes in the league this year (10.6%).
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, Berrios ranks in the #35 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 32.9% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Berrios ranks in the #36 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 37.9% of New York's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Berrios ranks in the #49 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 9.4% of passes this season.Berrios ranks in the #40 percentile and has put up 7.78 yards per target this season.The Buccaneers's pass defense ranks #21-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 161 yards per game this season.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 61.1% of the time (#17 in the NFL).New York's O-Line grades out as the #19-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Berrios open.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Berrios to exceed his player prop total 59.1% of the time. He projects for 58.6 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $14.07. That makes its return on investment yield +13%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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