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Brandon Bolden Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills
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Brandon Bolden Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 21.0 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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Bolden has been the #65-leading rusher this season, tallying 13 yards per game on the ground.The New England Patriots offensive line has ranked #7 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.This offense runs the ball 41.3% of the time in a neutral context (#8 in the NFL), and they project to run 41.3% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 43.1% of the time in this contest (#5 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Bills safeties have ranked #31 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 10.6% of the time this season, ranking as the #24 most in the league.
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CONS:
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He has received 9.5% of New England's carries this year -- #82 percentile when it comes to running backs.New England has played in the #4-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in bad-weather conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The New England Patriots have had the #25-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Buffalo Bills have ranked #10 against the run this year, holding opponents to 106 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Buffalo's defense has allowed 4.07 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#7-least in football).Bills defensive tackles have ranked #9 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Bills linebackers have ranked #2 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the New England Patriots have faced a stacked box 26.0% of the time this season -- #1-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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He has been on the field for 28.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #44 percentile among running backs.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Bolden is projected for 7.9% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The Patriots project to run 63.4 total plays in this contest, the #14-most of the week.Bills defensive ends have ranked #16 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 20.9 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 50.6% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$6.24 and with a negative ROI of -6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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