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Brandon Aiyuk Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 21 - NFC Championship Game
Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
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Right now, Brandon Aiyuk Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 49.5 (-105/-115), with an implied projection of 48.6 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 50.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 49.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Aiyuk ranks in the #81 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 78.4% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Aiyuk ranks in the #85 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 88.2% of San Francisco's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Aiyuk ranks in the #74 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 18.1% of passes this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Aiyuk for a 3.4% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Aiyuk ranks in the #92 percentile and has put up 9.97 yards per target this season.This year, the 49ers have played in the #6-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.The weather forecast here calls for 0-mph wind. This is notable because a higher portion of passes get completed when winds are light.As a unit, the Rams safeties rank #24 in pass coverage.The San Francisco 49ers are projected to run 62.7 plays in this matchup, the #2-most on the game slate.The 49ers enter as a 3.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.THE BLITZ projects San Francisco to drop back to pass on 61.2% of their plays in this game (#4-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.San Francisco's O-Line grades out as the #5-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Aiyuk open.
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CONS:
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The Los Angeles Rams have allowed 7.39 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #4-highest among NFL opponents.As a unit, the Rams cornerbacks rank #3 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, San Francisco has run the #29-fastest paced offense this season.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 57.3% of the time (#28 in the NFL).
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NEUTRAL:
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Aiyuk's 65.2% completion rate marks him in the #46 percentile among receivers.The Rams's pass defense ranks #14-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 144 yards per game this season.The Los Angeles Rams rank #13-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 65.1%.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Aiyuk to exceed his player prop total 62.8% of the time. He projects for 66.1 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $23.64. That makes its return on investment yield +23%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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