| |
Brandon Aiyuk Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 20 - NFC Divisional Round Game
Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Right now, Brandon Aiyuk Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 49.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Under: it opened 56.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 49.5 @ -110.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
In terms of playing time, Aiyuk ranks in the #81 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 78.4% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Aiyuk ranks in the #85 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 88.2% of San Francisco's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Aiyuk ranks in the #74 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 18.1% of passes this season.Aiyuk ranks in the #92 percentile and has put up 9.97 yards per target this season.This year, the 49ers have played in the #6-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.The San Francisco 49ers are projected to run 60.7 plays in this matchup, the #7-most on the game slate.The 49ers enter as a 6.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.THE BLITZ projects San Francisco to drop back to pass on 59.5% of their plays in this game (#7-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.San Francisco's O-Line grades out as the #5-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Aiyuk open.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
The Packers's pass defense ranks #10-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 138 yards per game this season.The Green Bay Packers have allowed 7.42 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #5-highest among NFL opponents.The Green Bay Packers rank #2-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 58.6%.In a neutral context, San Francisco has run the #29-fastest paced offense this season.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 57.3% of the time (#28 in the NFL).
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
This week, THE BLITZ projects Aiyuk for a 2.9% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Aiyuk's 65.2% completion rate marks him in the #48 percentile among receivers.As a unit, the Packers cornerbacks rank #13 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Packers safeties rank #13 in pass coverage.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ projects Aiyuk to exceed his player prop total 47.3% of the time. He projects for 46.4 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $0.59. That makes its return on investment yield +1%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
