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Brandon Aiyuk Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17
San Francisco 49ers vs Houston Texans
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Right now, Brandon Aiyuk Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 35.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 38.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Aiyuk ranks in the #82 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 80.6% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Aiyuk ranks in the #83 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 87.3% of San Francisco's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Aiyuk ranks in the #72 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 17.4% of passes this season.Aiyuk ranks in the #78 percentile and has put up 9.24 yards per target this season.This year, the 49ers have played in the #6-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.The Texans's pass defense ranks #24-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 168 yards per game this season.The Houston Texans have allowed 9.41 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #32-highest among NFL opponents.The Houston Texans rank #24-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 68.3%.As a unit, the Texans cornerbacks rank #30 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Texans safeties rank #29 in pass coverage.San Francisco's O-Line grades out as the #6-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Aiyuk open.San Francisco has run play-action on 28.8% of their passes this year, #9-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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CONS:
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In a neutral context, San Francisco has run the #28-fastest paced offense this season.The San Francisco 49ers are projected to run 61.4 plays in this matchup, the #27-most on the game slate.The 49ers are a 13.5 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 58.6% of the time (#25 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects San Francisco to drop back to pass on 40.2% of their plays in this game (#32-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.San Francisco's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.52 seconds on average this year (#23-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The 49ers have faced the #26-most stacked boxes in the league this year (10.5%).
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Aiyuk for a 1.9% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Aiyuk's 64.0% completion rate marks him in the #47 percentile among receivers.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Aiyuk to exceed his player prop total 48.3% of the time. He projects for 33.8 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the UNDER to offer better odds. The expected value on the UNDER is -$3.89 with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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