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Brandon Aiyuk

Brandon Aiyuk Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers
Brandon Aiyuk Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 63.5 (-120/-115) with an implied projection of 64.0 yards.

The money has been on the Over as it opened 60.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 63.5 @ -120.
  • Aiyuk has been on the field for 81.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #81 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 83.6% of San Francisco's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #77 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 16.8% -- #71 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Aiyuk is projected for 8.2% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #98 percentile among wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.62 yards per target this season, ranking in the #79 percentile.
  • San Francisco has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • Seattle Seahawks safeties rank as the #25 unit in pass coverage.
  • The 49ers project to run 64.0 plays in this contest, the #6-most of the week.
  • Aiyuk's offensive line has been #5 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The San Francisco 49ers have run play-action on 28.8% of their passes this year, #9-most in the NFL.

  • CONS:
  • The San Francisco 49ers have had the #27-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • San Francisco is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.
  • This offense passes the ball 57.5% of the time in a neutral context (#30 in the NFL).
  • The 49ers offensive line has given the QB 2.52 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#23-most time in the league).
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and San Francisco has faced the #26-most stacked boxes in the league this year (10.5%).

  • Aiyuk has been in the #60 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 66.7% completion rate.
  • Seattle's defense has allowed 154 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#20-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #22-most yards per target (7.95) against the Seahawks this season.
  • The Seahawks have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.2% of their targets this season, (#15-most in the league).
  • Seattle Seahawks cornerbacks rank as the #21 unit in pass coverage.
  • This offenses projects to pass 57.1% of the time in this contest (#22 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 66.7 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.4% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$4.81 and with a negative ROI of -4%.

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