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Brandin Cooks Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans
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Right now, Brandin Cooks Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 64.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 67.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 64.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Cooks ranks in the #83 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 80.9% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Cooks ranks in the #95 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 93.6% of Houston's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Cooks ranks in the #97 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 28.2% of passes this season.This year, the Texans have played in the #4-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Cooks's efficiency almost certainly took a hit in these games, and this should mean better things in better conditions.Houston's game this week will be played in a dome. That means two things: zero wind and a greater chance to catch passes.The Titans's pass defense ranks #31-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 183 yards per game this season.The Tennessee Titans have allowed 8.63 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #23-highest among NFL opponents.In a neutral context, Houston has run the #10-fastest paced offense this season.The Texans are a 10.5 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.THE BLITZ projects Houston to drop back to pass on 65.5% of their plays in this game (#4-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Houston's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.26 seconds on average this year (#1-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Texans have faced the #11-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.7%).
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CONS:
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As a unit, the Titans safeties rank #2 in pass coverage.The Houston Texans are projected to run 61.1 plays in this matchup, the #29-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 57.6% of the time (#28 in the NFL).Houston's O-Line grades out as the #26-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Cooks open.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Cooks for a 0.3% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Cooks ranks in the #46 percentile and has put up 7.95 yards per target this season.Cooks's 68.3% completion rate marks him in the #65 percentile among receivers.The Tennessee Titans rank #17-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 66.5%.As a unit, the Titans cornerbacks rank #19 in pass coverage.Houston has run play-action on 24.6% of their passes this year, #20-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Cooks to exceed his player prop total 59.0% of the time. He projects for 77.6 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $11.91. That makes its return on investment yield +10%.
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