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Brandin Cooks Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Houston Texans vs New York Jets
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Brandin Cooks Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 65.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 63.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 65.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Cooks has been on the field for 80.6% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #82 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 94.6% of Houston's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #97 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 28.8% -- #98 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Cooks has been in the #67 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 70.8% completion rate.This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.New York's defense has allowed 174 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#10-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #2-most yards per target (9.71) against the Jets this season.New York Jets safeties rank as the #26 unit in pass coverage.The Houston Texans have had the #11-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Texans project to run 63.9 plays in this contest, the #6-most of the week.The Texans offensive line has given the QB 2.26 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#1-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Houston has faced the #10-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.9%).
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CONS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Cooks is projected for -3.0% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #25 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.98 yards per target this season, ranking in the #29 percentile.This offense passes the ball 58.4% of the time in a neutral context (#26 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 56.8% of the time in this contest (#24 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.Cooks's offensive line has been #31 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Jets have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.6% of their targets this season, (#13-most in the league).New York Jets cornerbacks rank as the #18 unit in pass coverage.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Houston Texans have run play-action on 25.1% of their passes this year, #19-most in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 72.3 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 54.8% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $2.84. It's return on investment would yeild 2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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