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Boston Scott

Boston Scott Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17

Washington Football Team vs Philadelphia Eagles
 
 
 
Right now, Boston Scott Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 47.5 (-115/-115).
PROS:
  • The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Philadelphia's ranks #10 in that regard this season.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles are projected to run 63.5 plays in this matchup, the #10-most on the game slate.
  • The Eagles enter as a 6.0 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.
  • Philadelphia has been the #1-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 45.7% run rate in a neutral context.
  • THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #2-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 53.2% of their plays.

  • CONS:
  • The defensive ends of Washington have been the #5-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
  • The safeties of Washington have been the #7-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.

  • NEUTRAL:
  • Scott finds himself in the #41 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 36 yards.
  • His 32.0% snap rate this year puts him in the #53 percentile among running backs.
  • His carry rate of 22.6% this year puts him in the #45 percentile among running backs.
  • This week, THE BLITZ projects Scott for a 5.9% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.
  • This year, the Eagles have played in 5 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #12-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.
  • In a neutral context, Philadelphia has run the #14-fastest paced offense this season.
  • The WFT defense has allowed 107 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #11-least in football.
  • The Washington Football Team have allowed 4.49 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #17-best in the metric this season.
  • The defensive tackles of Washington have been the #16-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
  • The linebackers of Washington have been the #12-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
  • Philadelphia has faced the #16-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (14.0% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.
  • The WFT have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #20-most in the NFL this year at 13.2% of the time.

  • PROJECTION:
    THE BLITZ projects Scott to exceed his player prop total 47.0% of the time. He projects for 44.3 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.

    While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the UNDER to offer better odds. The expected value on the UNDER is -$1.05 with a negative ROI of -1%.
     
     
     
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