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Ben Roethlisberger Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns
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Right now, Ben Roethlisberger Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 241.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 235.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 241.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This year, at #12-best in the league, Roethlisberger has passed for247 yards per game.This year, the Steelers have played in the #4-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps quarterback efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.In a neutral context, Pittsburgh has run the #4-fastest paced offense this season.Pittsburgh's O-Line grades out as the #7-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Pittsburgh's offensive has kept pressure off Ben Roethlisberger for 2.39 seconds on average this year (#5-most in the NFL).Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Steelers have faced the #10-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.1%).When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Cleveland's defensive tackles rank #26 this season.
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CONS:
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Pittsburgh has run play-action on 19.6% of their passes this year, #30-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.The Cleveland Browns have had the #9-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Cleveland Browns have had the #1-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Cleveland's defensive ends rank #4 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of Completion%, he has been the #18-best in the league, completing passes at a 66.2% clip.In terms of efficiency, Roethlisberger has been #27 in the NFL this season. He averages 6.72 yards per target.The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to run 63.8 plays in this matchup, the #11-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 61.5% of the time (#14 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Pittsburgh to drop back to pass on 61.0% of their plays in this game (#11-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Cleveland's #11-ranked pass defense has allowed 236 passing yards per game this year.Cleveland has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.1% of their targets, which ranks them #19-best in the NFL.In terms of passing efficiency, Cleveland's defense is #13-best. This is because they allowed 7.49 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Cleveland Browns have had the #19-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Cleveland's linebackers rank #22 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Browns, they've stacked the box on 13.2% of their plays this season, #20-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Roethlisberger to exceed his player prop total 44.3% of the time. He projects for 226.2 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $4.73. That makes its return on investment yield +4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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