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Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns
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Right now, Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 221.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 228.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 221.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This year, the Browns have played in the #2-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps quarterback efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.Cleveland's O-Line grades out as the #9-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Browns have faced the #7-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.7%).The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the #28-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the #31-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Steelers, they've stacked the box on 19.3% of their plays this season, #5-most in football.
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CONS:
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In a neutral context, Cleveland has run the #27-fastest paced offense this season.The Cleveland Browns are projected to run 61.2 plays in this matchup, the #24-most on the game slate.THE BLITZ projects Cleveland to drop back to pass on 57.3% of their plays in this game (#23-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Pittsburgh's defensive ends rank #6 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Pittsburgh's linebackers rank #6 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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This year, at #24-best in the league, Mayfield has passed for215 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #26-best in the league, completing passes at a 63.9% clip.In terms of efficiency, Mayfield has been #15 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.36 yards per target.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 59.3% of the time (#22 in the NFL).Cleveland has run play-action on 24.6% of their passes this year, #20-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Pittsburgh's #12-ranked pass defense has allowed 237 passing yards per game this year.Pittsburgh has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.7% of their targets, which ranks them #13-best in the NFL.In terms of passing efficiency, Pittsburgh's defense is #18-best. This is because they allowed 7.75 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the #21-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Pittsburgh's defensive tackles rank #15 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Mayfield to exceed his player prop total 55.3% of the time. He projects for 235.5 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $3.85. That makes its return on investment yield +3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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