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Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens
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Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 228.5 (-110/-125) with an implied projection of 225.7 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 229.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 228.5 @ -125.
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PROS:
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Cleveland has played in the #2-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Baker Mayfield's offensive line has been #9 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Cleveland have faced the #7-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#16.7%).The Baltimore Ravens enter this game with the #30-best pass defense this season, allowing 278 yards per game through the air.Baltimore's defense has been #30-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.46 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Baltimore Ravens have had the #23-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Baltimore Ravens have had the #28-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.Ravens defensive tackles have ranked #30 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays this season, #8-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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Mayfield has passed for 212 yards per game this year, #28-best in the league.He's been the #27-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 63.3% clip.The Cleveland Browns have had the #28-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Browns project to run 60.4 plays in this contest, the #25-most of the week.Cleveland is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.This offense passes the ball 58.5% of the time in a neutral context (#24 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 53.7% of the time in this contest (#23 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Ravens have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 64.0% of their targets, ranking #2 in the NFL.The Baltimore Ravens have had the #7-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Ravens linebackers have ranked #7 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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Efficiency-wise, Mayfield has been #15 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.48 yards per target.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Cleveland Browns have run play-action on 24.6% of their passes this year, #20-most in the NFL.Ravens defensive ends have ranked #19 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 207.7 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 42.1% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $5.30. It's return on investment would yeild 4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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