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Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers
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Right now, Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 55.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 56.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 55.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Los Angeles's ranks #5 in that regard this season.His 59.5% snap rate this year puts him in the #91 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 54.3% this year puts him in the #86 percentile among running backs.This year, the Chargers have played in 10 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #3-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.In a neutral context, Los Angeles has run the #5-fastest paced offense this season.The Los Angeles Chargers are projected to run 64.6 plays in this matchup, the #6-most on the game slate.The Chargers enter as a 3.0 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.The defensive ends of Las Vegas have been the #26-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The defensive tackles of Las Vegas have been the #30-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Las Vegas have been the #24-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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Ekeler finds himself in the #76 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 56 yards.Teams run the ball less when winds are light, and forecasts call for 0-mph wind in this game.Los Angeles has been the #29-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 33.8% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #26-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 35.8% of their plays.The Las Vegas Raiders have allowed 4.25 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #10-best in the metric this season.The linebackers of Las Vegas have been the #7-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.Los Angeles has faced the #5-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (19.4% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.The Raiders have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #1-most in the NFL this year at 22.2% of the time.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Ekeler for a 0.0% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Raiders defense has allowed 114 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #19-least in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Ekeler to exceed his player prop total 52.0% of the time. He projects for 58.0 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.11 with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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